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Ahmed Balaha
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Bitcoin price dropped to approximately $66,500, shedding nearly 6% in hours, after President Trump’s April 1st address signaled harder military strikes against Iran in the coming weeks, shattering the fragile optimism that had briefly lifted risk assets.
The S&P 500 followed into the red, with MSCI’s Asia Pacific index reversing a prior session’s rebound to fall 1.7%. Brent crude jumped more than 5% to above $106 a barrel as traders priced in prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption. This market fallout is precisely the macro fog that keeps risk assets pinned.
Trump’s remarks reversed sentiment that had built earlier this week when he indicated a willingness to end the conflict before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global trade waterway.
The April 1st address walked that back entirely, using language that pointed toward escalation rather than negotiation. Investors received no timeline for resolution – only the prospect of intensified operations.
Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative took another hit. With the 30-day rolling BTC-to-S&P 500 correlation spiking to 0.75 – its highest in months – institutional desks are treating Bitcoin as a high-beta tech proxy, not a geopolitical hedge. The safe-haven narrative is cracking.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Hold $65,000 Support or Another Leg Down?
BTC is sitting at $66,500, stuck in a pattern of lower highs since the March peak at $76,000, with each recovery attempt getting weaker and selling pressure capping every bounce before it gets going.
The $64,000 to $65,000 floor is the level that matters most right now, it has held on multiple tests but a clean break below it opens the path straight back to $60,000 where the February wick bottomed out.
On the upside, $68,000 and then $70,000 are the levels that need to flip for any real recovery narrative to rebuild, and neither looks easy given how heavy every bounce has been recently.
Until one of those scenarios plays out, this is a chart in damage control mode.
The broader bearish trend in BTC’s recent price history makes this inflection point more consequential than it might otherwise appear.
Bitcoin ended March up just 2%, snapping a five-month losing streak – but it remains down roughly 45% from its October peak above $126,000. Apparent demand was already negative by approximately 63,000 BTC as of late last month, per CryptoQuant.
“Stock and commodity markets continue to whipsaw according to Trump’s latest comments on geopolitical developments,” said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets.
“Bitcoin is largely following stocks’ direction, though in the past few weeks it has showed reduced sensitivity to both good and bad news.” That reduced sensitivity may be the one thin positive – but it hasn’t prevented a $6,500 drop in a single session.
Notably, gold’s worst monthly performance in 17 years through March – down more than 11% – strips away the easy ‘rotate to safe havens’ narrative. Treasuries and cash are absorbing the flight-to-safety flow instead.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged as markets priced in persistent inflation driven by energy supply disruptions, creating a direct headwind for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Until the Iran situation resolves cleanly in either direction, Bitcoin is unlikely to decouple.
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